Abstract Summary
The endangered species listing of Acropora cervicornis has prompted the need for restoration. Since resources are limited, sites selected for restoration should not only be suitable for outplant survival, but also contribute larvae to replenish surrounding reefs. However, coral larval dispersal patterns and reef connectivity remain poorly studied. Here, we measured long term larval survival and competency of Acropora cervicornis to calibrate a high resolution (100m) biophysical larval dispersal model of Acropora in the Florida Reef Tract. The resulting connectivity matrix was used to develop a metapopulation model to identify areas of higher interest to restore and protect. Larvae experienced high mortality during early development, but once the planula stage was reached, mortality rates decreased considerably. Larvae reached competency after day 5. The model predicts that most larvae are lost from the system, but the ones that settle are primarily transported from south to north. However, some of the northernmost reefs can still act as sources, with eddies pushing larvae southward. Reefs within the Middle Keys are some of the most important larval sources within the system and thus should be prioritized for restoration. Reefs with high self-recruitment, such as some in the Lower and Upper Keys, should be prioritized for protection, as they are more isolated and thus vulnerable to disturbance. More importantly, this model allows managers to compare the capacity of suitable sites for restoration to recolonize other reefs through sexual recruitment. Taking reef connectivity into account would enhance genetic diversity, hasten coral recovery, and boost resilience across the entire reef system.
