Demographic Models as a Tool for Predicting Coral Restoration Success

To predict restoration success requires an understanding of the factors influencing growth and survivorship of coral species. Here we use empirically-derived matrix population models to generate estimates of stage-specific growth, survivorship, and fertility for Acropora palmata, A. cervicornis, and Orbicella annularis inhabiting the wider Caribbean. Growth and survivorship data were generated from repeated benthic transect surveys spanning from 2011-2015, while estimates of fertility were generated with a meta-analysis of the relevant primary literature. Preliminary results suggest that O. annularis in the wider Caribbean is experiencing declines of ~4% per year (lambda = 0.96), and in terms of future population growth, survivorship of individuals within the two smallest size classes (i.e.